Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro said on Monday that although Manila is looking forward to continuing discussions over the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), it doubts Beijing’s “sincerity” in them. This remark echoes Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s statement on the South China Sea issue at the ASEAN Summit 2024, where he urged all ASEAN member states “not to turn a blind eye to the aggressive, coercive and illegal actions of an external power against an ASEAN member state.”

This kind of political and diplomatic rhetoric does not help ease differences and cool down the situation. It could, however, have the opposite effect and further deteriorate political mutual trust between China and the Philippines and make people even more confused about the direction of the Philippines' South China Sea policy.

In fact, Manila is the only ASEAN member that deliberately turns a blind eye to Washington’s manipulation. The country cannot deceive other ASEAN member states, hoping they will collude with it. ASEAN has served as a platform for dialogue and cooperation for many decades, providing a venue for extensive diplomatic interactions on critical issues at both bilateral and multilateral levels. The Philippines is becoming isolated as other ASEAN members are very uncomfortable and unhappy with how it, under the current situation, is behaving regarding the South China Sea disputes.

The increased strategic synergy between Washington and Manila in recent years has indeed had a negative impact on the situation in the South China Sea and China's security interests. It also poses challenges for China and the Philippines to grasp the correct direction of bilateral relations, properly handle the South China Sea issue and jointly maintain regional stability. However, Beijing’s response to Manila’s provocations is essentially based on the need to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea, not a countermeasure against the US-Philippines alliance.

Marcos Jr's remarks at the summit reflected several miscalculations by the Philippine government. First, Manila mistakenly believes that the Philippines' approach to the South China Sea issue would be supported and echoed by ASEAN member states. Over the past two years, the negative factors affecting peace and stability in the South China Sea have been directly caused by the Philippines' continuous provocations at the political, diplomatic, maritime and public opinion levels.

The strengthening of the US-Philippine alliance, the erosion of political mutual trust between China and the Philippines, and the intensification of maritime tensions do not serve the interests of ASEAN, its member states, or even the long-term interests of the Philippines as a sovereign and independent nation. ASEAN member states see this very clearly, so they have not responded to the Philippines' slander and smear against China. The Philippines' hyping up of the South China Sea issue at the ASEAN summit will also not have any constructive effect on ASEAN unity.

Second, Manila mistakenly believes that China is creating obstacles to the COC consultation. The Philippines should not disrupt the atmosphere of these negotiations while claiming to help speed up the negotiation process. ASEAN's concern over recent maritime developments is understandable. All the parties are aware of the importance of crisis management through COC and the need to accelerate COC consultation. The purpose of the COC is not to impose a single solution on all parties related to the disputes, but rather to provide a crisis management approach to the complex disputes and increase the possibility that all participating countries' demands are met. 

The quality of COC should not be judged by the respective interests of certain parties. A reference that is jointly accepted and recognized is required, and this reference is the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). As the first political document to address the South China Sea issue at the regional multilateral level, the DOC embodies the common will of all parties to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and reflects the East Asian spirit of mutual respect, consensus and consideration for the comfort of all parties. The establishment of COC is the goal of DOC, and it is also the requirement of full and effective implementation of DOC.

Third, the Philippines mistakenly believes that constantly hyping up the South China Sea issue in international multilateral forums can bring greater political, diplomatic and public opinion pressure on China to make concessions on maritime differences. China's claims in the South China Sea are based on sufficient historical and legal bases, and China's policy position on the South China Sea issue has maintained long-term stability and continuity. China's determination, will and ability to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea are not something that the Philippines has felt only in the past two years. In the face of China's capability, will and strategic determination, any attack on China’s legitimate actions over the South China Sea will only be like a piece of cloud floating in front of a towering mountain.

(Author: Ding DUO, the deputy director of the Research Center for Ocean Law and Policy at China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies. Source: Global Times)