On August 31st, the illegally anchored Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 at Xianbin Jiao deliberately collided with China Coast Guard vessel 5205, which was conducting legitimate law enforcement, using unprofessional and dangerous maneuvers, resulting in a scrape between the ships. This incident marks an escalation of the Philippines’ illegal provocations following the airdrop of supplies to the ship on August 28th.

However, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela claimed on social media that the Philippine vessel was not provocative and accused the China Coast Guard of deliberately ramming the PCG ship 9701 three times. In response, the China Coast Guard released footage ahead of the Philippines, clearly showing that the Philippine vessel intentionally collided with the Chinese ship, placing full responsibility on the Philippines.

Why did the illegally anchored Philippine ship suddenly engage in provocative maneuvers? There are at least two reasons: First, the Philippines’claim of a “successful” resupply on the 28th gave the Philippine Coast Guard a false sense of strength, leading them to believe they could initiate further provocations at Xianbin Jiao. 

(Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 deliberately collided with China Coast Guard vessel 5205 on August 31st)

Second, the U.S. openly expressed support for the Philippine resupply missions in the South China Sea and even dispatched a P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft on the 31st to provide air support. The U.S.’s blatant backing of the Philippines not only interferes with China’s legitimate efforts to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea but also poses a serious provocation and military threat to China’s national security.

The Philippine vessel 9701, built by Japan and delivered to the Philippines in 2022, surpasses many of the country’s existing coast guard ships in performance, bolstering the Philippines’confidence in carrying out maritime infringements. Japan has played a highly questionable role in the recent provocations by the Philippines, not only signing the Reciprocal Access Agreement and conducting joint military exercises, but also continuously providing the Philippines with new lighthouse-class coast guard patrol ships. 

Meanwhile, Japan has increasingly taken a front-stage role, cooperating with the U.S. in promoting the “China threat” narrative in the South China Sea through the Philippine media. After the airdrop incident on the 28th, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines sent eight probing questions to the Japanese Embassy in the Philippines, but received no response. This silence reflects Japan’s guilty conscience on the South China Sea issue.

As the Philippines’biggest supporter, the U.S. only provided symbolic support with a P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft. Following the incident, Spokesperson for the US State Department  Matthew Miller stated that the U.S. stands with its Philippine allies and condemned China’s “dangerous and escalatory” actions against the Philippines’ lawful maritime activities near the Xianbin Jiao. U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson criticized China’s dangerous actions that violate international law and expressed support for the Philippines’ efforts to uphold international law. However, these actions were no different from past U.S. support for the Philippines. 

What the Philippines expected most is that the US Indo Pacific Command can escort their supply mission in the South China Sea. Yet, this hope was in vain, as the U.S. did not deploy any warships to Xianbin Jiao. The uncomfortable reality that the Philippines is reluctant to admit is that the U.S. remains unwilling to provide more military support at Xianbin Jiao and other features, as this would directly risk confrontation with Chinese naval and coast guard, leading to potentially unpredictable consequences.

Under the U.S.'s encouragement, the Philippines is indulging in its role as a proxy, unaware that it is walking into a trap where it could become a sacrificial pawn. However, reality has dealt them a harsh blow. Photos released by the Philippines show that during the collision, the Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 was surrounded by three Chinese Coast Guard ships, and other Chinese vessels, leaving it with no room to maneuver.

In this operation, the Philippine Coast Guard not only failed to achieve any substantial results but also suffered significant losses. Ironically, the Philippines remains defiant, claiming that despite the harassment, bullying, and escalation by the China Coast Guard, the Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 and its replacement vessel will not withdraw from the area. This indicates that the Philippines is unlikely to cease its deliberate provocations at Xianbin Jiao and may even deploy additional ships to support future actions.

The primary reason for this operation by the Philippine Coast Guard lies in their overconfidence in their own strength, reliance on U.S. support, and underestimation of China’s resolve. On the 29th, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian stated that China’s tolerance has a limit, and the Philippine side should immediately take action to withdraw its ships and personnel from Xianbin Jiao, restoring its status as an uninhabited and unfortified area. 

In response, China should maintain its numerical superiority at Xianbin Jiao and continue to enhance its presence in the surrounding waters, including the demonstration of air power. The U.S. should not be allowed to act with impunity in the South China Sea, and China’s resolve to counter U.S. bullying in the region must remain steadfast.

It is foreseeable that the Philippines has misjudged the situation and underestimated China’s strength. The farce orchestrated by the Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 at Xianbin Jiao is reaching its inevitable conclusion.

(Author: Xu Qi, Deputy Director of the Center for Foreign-related Rule of Law Studies, Jinan University)