Recently, the Philippines has intensified its provocations in the South China Sea, repeatedly sending aircraft to illegally enter Chinese airspace. According to reports from the Southern Theater Command, on February 20, two Philippine C-208 aircraft and one N-22 aircraft illegally entered the airspace near China’s Nansha islands and reefs. On February 18, a Philippine C-208 aircraft illegally entered Chinese airspace over Huangyan Dao, changing altitude multiple times, descending 920 meters in 218 seconds, and deliberately crossing the altitude of China’s normal helicopter patrols in a dangerous and unprofessional manner. All of these actions were fully monitored and intercepted by the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command.

While deliberately creating risks of maritime and aerial encounters, the Philippine side also ignored the facts, distorted the truth, and repeatedly smeared China’s legitimate rights protection actions. Ding Duo, Director of the Center for Area Studies at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, stated in an interview with CMG VSCS that Philippine politicians are attempting to use the South China Sea issue to gain momentum for domestic mid-term elections, while also attempting to justify their legislative infringements with provocative maritime and aerial actions. However, based on China’s firm and effective responses, the Philippines has seriously misjudged the situation.

According to Philippine media reports, President Marcos publicly used the South China Sea issue to gain political leverage at a mid-term election rally last Tuesday. Marcos claimed, “The Chinese have taken our islands to make them part of their country,” and said that members of his administration “have no connections with China, and no one wants to see our coast guard ships attacked by China. Let’s achieve a 12-0 victory in the Senate!”

The South China Morning Post commented that Marcos is the first Philippine leader to attempt to win votes through foreign policy. Former Philippine presidential spokesperson Rigoberto Tiglao also published an article in the Manila Times, directly calling Marcos’ statement “fake news” and exposing his “habit of making nonsense remarks.”

Ding stated that with the Philippine mid-term elections approaching, the Marcos government is using South China Sea provocations to divert domestic attention and gain support from voters by showing strength on the issue. This is aimed at differentiating its South China Sea policy from that of the Duterte administration and undermining political opponents.

Ding further pointed out that after the signing of the Philippine Marine Zones Law in November last year, the Philippines has been attempting to use substantial maritime and aerial provocations to legitimize its domestic laws. Unable to “break through” at sea, it is now trying to challenge the validity of China’s baseline of territorial waters around Huangyan Dao by increasing aerial incursions.

Since February, the Philippines has repeatedly joined with external countries to conduct so-called joint maritime and aerial cooperation activities. On February 4, the Philippine and U.S. air forces carried out “joint air patrols” targeting the territorial waters of Huangyan Dao. According to the Philippine Daily Inquirer, the Philippine Armed Forces stated that this year’s Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercises with the U.S. will be one of the largest in history, covering air, ground, sea, and cyber warfare, with participation from multiple countries’ militaries.

Ding believes that with the U.S. under the Trump administration now focusing primarily on domestic affairs and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Philippine government is concerned about a lack of U.S. attention and reduced support. As a “pawn,” the Philippines is showing increasing anxiety. On the other hand, it is also possible that, with the U.S. currently having limited focus on the Indo-Pacific and maritime security issues, the Philippines has received some tacit approval, encouragement, and security assurances from the U.S. to act as a vanguard in countering China.

After the new U.S. government was officially inaugurated, communication between the U.S. and Philippine military and diplomatic officials has remained steady. On February 10, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Brown, in a phone call with Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Brawner, stated that both sides intend to expand joint military exercises and emphasized the importance of enhancing perception capabilities in the Philippines’ so-called exclusive economic zone. At the recently concluded Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio held his first face-to-face conversation with Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo, expressing a desire to establish a deeper and more lasting bilateral relationship. The U.S. State Department also reiterated that it would not withdraw the Typhoon medium-range missiles deployed in the Philippines, aimed at addressing the “growing threats.”

Ding pointed out that these signs indicate that the Trump administration will not abandon or reduce its intervention in South China Sea affairs. The Philippines will continue to make full use of the gray zone tactics and escalate the “China threat theory” in the cognitive domain, persistently creating maritime incidents and turning the South China Sea issue into a regional and even international hot topic.

In response to the recent aerial provocations by the Philippines, Southern Theater Command spokesperson Colonel Tian Junli warned the Philippine side that such clumsy tactics are destined to be futile. The troops in the theater remain on high alert and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and security, as well as the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

Ding believes that the Philippines is “walking a tightrope.” It aims to use the higher risks of aerial encounters to “activate” the applicability of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, attempting to create greater deterrence against China and raise the costs of China’s countermeasures and rights protection, thereby influencing China’s decision-making.