At the ASEAN Summit held in Vientiane, Laos recently, Philippine President Marcos fully revealed his intentions. He accused China of ongoing illegal “harassment and intimidation” in the South China Sea, while urged ASEAN countries to break from “self-restraint” and “take unified and urgent measures” to ease tensions.

Xu Liping, a researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated in an interview with Voice of the South China Sea that “Marcos’ remarks are very unwise. His confrontational approach toward China on the South China Sea issue has no support within ASEAN and will not gain traction.”

(Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attends the 27th China-ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos, on October. 10, 2024.)

“Unity” is the foundation of ASEAN’s long-held “centrality,” and it is clear that by hyping the so-called China threat at the ASEAN Summit and resorting to divisive tactics, Marcos is actually increasing the risk of conflict and creating rifts within ASEAN, which is counterproductive to solving the South China Sea issue.

Despite the Philippines’ repeated provocations in the South China Sea recently, it has not received any response or support from other ASEAN countries. The mainstream policy within ASEAN remains advancing the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and the consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Senior Officials of ASEAN Member States and China met for the 22nd ASEAN-China SOM-DOC on 13 September 2024 in Xi’an, China. All parties unanimously called for enhanced dialogue, restraint, proper handling of differences, and greater mutual trust. At the 27th China-ASEAN (10+1) Leaders’ Meeting on October 10, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who will assume the rotating ASEAN chairmanship, reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea and called for the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Anwar also expressed his hope that China would support ASEAN’s energy transition and expand cooperation with ASEAN in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics.

(The 27th China-ASEAN Summit was held in Vientiane, Laos on October 10, 2024.)

However, for Philippine President Marcos, who is entrenched in a confrontational stance, there seems to be little interest in cooperation. At the China-ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting, Marcos stated that given the current political tensions, ASEAN and China could not pretend that economic conditions were still favorable.

Yet the facts suggest otherwise.

Despite the global economic downturn and escalating geopolitical conflicts, China and ASEAN have remained each other’s largest trading partners since 2020. China has been the Philippines’ largest trading partner for eight consecutive years and is one of its top sources of investment. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, in the first half of 2024, the total amount of goods imported by the Philippines from China was 15.59 billion US dollars, accounting for 25.4% of the total imports. China is the largest import market for the Philippines.

At the 27th China-ASEAN (10+1) Leaders’ Meeting, China and the ten ASEAN countries announced the substantial conclusion of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade Negotiations and plans to sign the upgraded protocol by 2025. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the 3.0 version brings significant enhancements in nine key areas, including mutually beneficial cooperation in emerging sectors such as the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity.

Marcos’ attempts to hype up South China Sea security issues and undermine the strong economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN reflect his continued erosion of political trust between China and the Philippines, according to Xu Liping. If Marcos does not change his confrontational mindset, it will inevitably cause serious damage to bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and future China-Philippines relations will struggle to see any meaningful improvement, which will also harm regional development.

(On September 27, 2024, the 21st China-ASEAN Expo was held in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, fruit products from ASEAN countries are welcomed by consumers.)

Xu Liping further pointed out that the vast majority of countries in the region are developing nations, and development is their top priority. However, without a stable regional environment, development cannot be achieved. The upgrade of the ACFTA will further expand the benefits of cooperation between China and ASEAN, providing more tangible gains for both peoples. This will help to enhance mutual trust between China and ASEAN, which is crucial for the peaceful resolution of the South China Sea issue.

No matter how Marcos tries to exploit regional cooperation platforms to stir up trouble, the vast majority of ASEAN countries remain clear-headed, choosing to cooperate with China through development and equal consultation to counter those attempting to disrupt regional peace. As Xu Liping noted in his interview, “Peace and stability in the South China Sea is the greatest common denominator and consensus among the people of this region.”