This month, the U.S. State Department’s restructuring efforts have targeted the Office of Multilateral Affairs under the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. The office, which coordinated U.S. diplomatic engagement with ASEAN, has been shut down, and several veteran experts on South China Sea affairs have been laid off. The move has raised concerns over whether the U.S. is signaling a strategic retreat in the Asia-Pacific and voluntarily weakening its capacity for strategic execution.

According to Reuters, on July 10, Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas sent an email to all staff announcing that the State Department was entering the “final stage” of its reorganization, aiming for a “more results-focused diplomacy.” Under the plan submitted to Congress, the department will cut nearly 1,900 of its 18,000 domestic staff, with another 1,575 leaving voluntarily. Of its 734 agencies and offices, over 300 will be streamlined, merged, or eliminated. Although the full list of closures has not been officially released, offices related to diplomacy and China policy appear to be among the hardest hit.

The now-defunct Office of Multilateral Affairs had played a key role in advancing U.S.-ASEAN security cooperation and led Washington’s diplomatic response to China over South China Sea issues. It also coordinated America’s strategic presence in the Mekong region. The office had just organized Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Malaysia and had long provided policy expertise on China. Yet before his trip even concluded, staff members received notice of termination.

This targeted round of layoffs has sent a strong signal of U.S. strategic retrenchment. Several foreign policy experts have warned that the move could undermine America’s influence in Asia and erode trust with its allies.

Gregory B. Poling, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), criticized the dismissal of South China Sea experts, saying it reinforces the regional perception that “the U.S. is pulling back from Asia.” Piper Campbell, former U.S. ambassador and now director of the Department of Foreign Policy and Global Security at American University, cautioned that the weakening of multilateral diplomacy personnel will impair the United States’ ability to understand and coordinate around Southeast Asia’s complex political landscape.

On July 23, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had just concluded a visit to the U.S., during which he repeatedly underscored the importance of strengthening the U.S.-Philippines military alliance and voiced a clear expectation for continued U.S. presence and deeper engagement in the South China Sea. Marcos also sought increased American investment, hoping to position the U.S.-Philippines relationship as a regional security anchor. Yet at this critical moment, the U.S. decision to reduce its expertise on South China Sea affairs clearly runs counter to the strategic commitment its allies are looking for. In effect, it has further eroded America’s strategic credibility. This kind of “self-withdrawal at a pivotal moment” is more than just a policy inconsistency—it risks sending a broader message across the Indo-Pacific that U.S. strategic commitments are no longer reliable.

So, does this act of the U.S. “disarming itself” mean China is poised to gain the upper hand? That remains to be seen and calls for a more measured assessment.

In today’s increasingly intense geopolitical competition, professionalism in policymaking has become more critical than ever. A dismissed State Department official remarked in an interview that with the departure of these seasoned experts, those now making decisions are “operating in an information vacuum” and unaware of the potential risks and consequences of their choices.

The State Department also made no preparations for a transfer of responsibilities in this wave of cuts, failing to pass institutional knowledge on to other teams. This kind of “disrupted” policy management carries a high risk of miscalculation and dysfunction. In the South China Sea, a region fraught with sensitivity and multilateral entanglements, decisions made without expert support could have ripple effects across the entire Indo-Pacific security architecture.

Ironically, the Trump administration has made “countering China” the cornerstone of its national strategy. Yet its current actions suggest it is actively dismantling the institutional foundations that underpin this strategy. While being reflexively anti-China, it is laying off the very professionals who understand China best and who are most capable of managing complex geopolitical challenges. This posture of outward toughness masking internal erosion inevitably raises questions about whether the motivations behind such moves are driven by election politics or ideological agendas, rather than coherent strategic thinking.

From China’s perspective, the Trump administration’s decision to lay off these experts is a development worth watching. Whether it reflects a temporary administrative adjustment remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that China should not interpret this as a sign of U.S. weakness or let down its guard. When facing a counterpart whose foreign policy is increasingly de-professionalized and unpredictable, the real test lies in maintaining strategic composure, responding to external disruptions with internal resilience and steadiness.

(Author: Chen Qi, Assistant Research Fellow at Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance)