Recently, the Philippines' resupply operations around Ren'ai Jiao have once again drawn international attention. On August 22, the Philippine military claimed that due to insufficient supplies, soldiers stationed aboard the illegally “grounded” warship Sierra Madre could only survive by fishing. Senior military officials even threatened that if any Filipino soldier died from supply shortages, the Philippines would retaliate by “all means.”

On August 25, The Philippines announced the deployment of its largest and most advanced coast guard vessel to “escort and protect” a new resupply mission to Ren'ai Jiao.

Behind these moves lies a dangerous “gambler mentality.” What drives this mentality, and what does it reveal about the Philippines' intentions?

Where does the "Gambler Mentality" come from?

The Philippines' gambler mindset stems from both an inflated sense of its own capabilities and a serious misjudgment of the regional and international landscape. Since 1999, when the Philippine Navy deliberately ran aground the Sierra Madre at Ren'ai Jiao, The Philippines has sought to advance illegal territorial claims through occupation.

During the Duterte administration, however, China and the Philippines reached a tacit “gentleman’s agreement”: The Philippines pledged not to reinforce the grounded vessel or construct facilities on Ren'ai Jiao, and to notify China in advance of resupply runs. In turn, China allowed humanitarian deliveries of basic necessities. This arrangement preserved relative stability for years.

But under President Marcos, the situation shifted sharply.

Encouraged by the U.S. and its allies, the Philippines abandoned restraint. The U.S., motivated by its strategic goal of containing China, has consistently stoked tensions in the South China Sea—providing military aid, political backing, and rhetorical support to The Philippines. Misled by this external encouragement, the Philippines has wrongly assumed that U.S. support will force China to yield on Ren'ai Jiao, prompting it to repeatedly push beyond China’s bottom line.

Some Filipino politicians understand the risks but prioritize personal or political gain over national stability. Driven by short-term benefits and external manipulation, they have unilaterally torn up past understandings and adopted radical, adventurist policies.

Consequences of Reckless Adventurism

China and the Philippines are close neighbors with longstanding cooperation in trade, culture, and people-to-people exchanges. Yet The Philippines’ provocations at Ren'ai Jiao have repeatedly undermined this foundation, straining relations and endangering both sides’ shared interests.

From a security standpoint, The Philippines’ behavior has sharply raised the risk of military conflict. Philippine coast guard ships have frequently ignored Chinese warnings, forcing their way into waters near Ren'ai Jiao and triggering dangerous standoffs. In such a volatile environment, even a small miscalculation could escalate into direct confrontation.

Given that the South China Sea is a critical artery of global commerce, conflict here would threaten not only regional security but also the stability of global trade.
Legally, the Philippines’ actions are baseless. Ren'ai Jiao has been part of China’s territory since ancient times, a fact rooted in history, law, and international practice. The Philippines’ attempt to change the status quo through illegal means violates the UN Charter, runs counter to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), and undermines international rule of law.

The Path Forward

For The Philippines, the only responsible way forward is to abandon its gambler mentality and return to rationality and pragmatism.

First, the Philippines must stop illegal provocations and acknowledge the historical and legal realities of Ren'ai Jiao. Only by facing facts can it find a constructive solution.
Second, the Philippines should cherish the friendly cooperative relationship built with China over many years and return to the track of resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation.

The two sides have successfully managed differences in the past through dialogue. Disputes should not overshadow the broader benefits of Sino-Philippine cooperation. Both sides can engage in frank communication and exchanges on the Ren’ai Jiao issue as well as other disputes in the South China Sea, on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, in order to seek proper solutions.

Moreover, the Philippines should recognize that the U.S. is not acting to safeguard its interests but to contain China and maintain regional hegemony. By aligning itself blindly with the U.S., The Philippines risks being reduced to a disposable pawn in a larger geopolitical contest.

The Philippines should focus on its development and livelihoods. A peaceful South China Sea is vital to its prosperity. Stability and cooperation with neighbors will open far more opportunities than confrontation ever could.

“You can never wake someone who pretends to be asleep.”

Some Filipino politicians are binding their people to the chariot of confrontation, gambling with the nation’s future. The Philippine public must understand: only by abandoning this gambler’s mindset and addressing the Ren'ai Jiao issue with sobriety and pragmatism can The Philippines safeguard national interests, preserve friendly ties with China, and contribute to peace and stability in the region. Otherwise, it risks walking down a dangerous path and paying a heavy price.

(Author: Xu Qi, Vice Dean of the Institute for Foreign-related Rule of Law Studies, Law School, Jinan University)