In terms of regional security, the Philippines is increasingly becoming a source of instability. Since the Marcos administration took office in 2022, the country has accelerated military cooperation with external powers, frequently stirred up tensions in the South China Sea, and even introduced extra-regional forces and deployed advanced weapons under the pretext of so-called“security threats,” pursuing excessive military modernization. These actions have drawn the Philippines deeper into major-power geopolitical rivalry and pose a serious threat to regional peace and stability.

In terms of military cooperation, Philippine-U.S. ties have undergone a“leapfrog upgrade.”The two sides have accelerated implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), increasing the number of U.S.-accessible bases from five to nine—three on Luzon and one in Palawan near the South China Sea. They have also conducted frequent joint exercises. In 2025, the second phase of Cope Thunder between the U.S. and Philippine air forces commenced at Clark Air Base, which is only 259 kilometers from China’s Huangyan Dao and has a 3,200-meter runway capable of hosting B-52 bombers, revealing an unmistakable strategic-deterrence intention.

In terms of military procurement, the Philippines has significantly increased its defense budget in recent years and purchased large quantities of foreign weapons in response to the South China Sea issue. In 2023, the Philippine defense secretary announced the acquisition of HIMARS rocket systems from the United States. The Marcos administration also revived and revised the “Re-Horizon 3” program, extending it from a five-year to a ten-year cycle, with a budget reaching USD 35 billion. Priority purchases include two diesel-electric submarines, twelve F-16C/D fighter jets, and various missile systems.
 

What is even more alarming is that the Philippines is effectively“inviting wolves into the house”by deploying advanced offensive weapons on its own territory. In April 2024, India delivered the first batch of BrahMos cruise missiles to Clark Air Base, while the U.S. deployed A-10C attack aircraft, F-16 fighter squadrons, and even introduced the Typhon mid-range missile system. The BrahMos missile’s range covers most features in the South China Sea, while the Typhon system can strike targets up to 2,700 kilometers away, sharply increasing the risk of an“accidental conflict”in the region. Although these deployments may appear to enhance the Philippines military capabilities, they also turn the country into a“forward ammunition depot” and place Philippine territory on the front line of potential conflict. Filipino scholars therefore worry that such a “binding” security policy undermines the Philippines’ strategic autonomy and reduces the country to a pawn in major-power competition.

As a small state in the region, the Philippines should pursue a cautious policy between major powers. Instead, its military modernization has far exceeded normal national defense needs, posing a threat to neighboring countries and regional peace and stability. In 2024, the U.S. and the Philippines conducted 18 joint patrols in the South China Sea—an increase of 125 percent compared with 2022—and each patrol was accompanied by U.S. electronic reconnaissance aircraft conducting close-in surveillance. During the 2025 U.S.-Philippine joint exercises, U.S. reconnaissance aircraft frequently took off and landed in the South China Sea airspace, operating over disputed areas such as China’s Huangyan Dao and Ren’ai Jiao, with a distinctly provocative posture.

The Philippines’ excessive militarization also violates the core principles of the ASEAN Charter, making it a disruptor of the regional security order. The ASEAN Charter explicitly requires member states to adhere to the principles of the “peaceful settlement of disputes,” “non-interference in internal affairs,” and “non-militarization.” However, by allowing foreign forces to deploy offensive weapons on its territory, the Philippines has effectively brought extra-regional powers into regional affairs. At the 2025 ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, countries such as Indonesia and Singapore issued veiled criticisms that “certain states are bringing external military blocs into the region,” highlighting how the Philippines is becoming increasingly isolated within ASEAN.

From a national governance perspective, the Philippines’ militarization policy appears even more unreasonable. According to 2025 World Bank data, the country’s poverty rate remained as high as 15.5 percent in 2023, meaning 15 million people live in poverty. Meanwhile, the latest September 2025 survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) shows that 50 percent of Filipinos consider themselves poor. Despite this, the government continues to channel limited resources into the military. For example, the USD 35 billion budget under the “Re-Horizon 3” program is equivalent to five years of national education spending, enough to build 2,000 schools or 100 hospitals.

In the 2025 national budget, the Philippines’ defense allocation increased sharply from 240.6 billion pesos in 2024 to 315.1 billion pesos. The budget of the Department of Public Works and Highways also surged by 213 billion pesos. Yet a recent scandal revealed by former Philippine congressman Elizaldy “Zaldy” Co suggests that a large portion of these funds may have directly flowed into President Marcos’ own pockets. In Mindanao, the share of people who consider themselves poor is as high as 76 percent, and in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, 45 percent of children under five suffer from stunting. Such a “missiles over bread” policy ultimately reflects disregard for and abandonment of the people’s well-being.

Corruption in military procurement further worsens the waste of resources. The first two phases of the Philippines’“Horizon” modernization program both experienced severe cost overruns—28 percent in Phase One and 43 percent in Phase Two—with large sums funneled into military contractors and bureaucrats’ pockets. Considering the ongoing national public budget scandals and the “ghost projects” scandal, it is difficult to imagine that the Philippines’ military procurement is clean.

The Philippines’ path of excessive militarization is both self-destructive and a regional public hazard. Its security alignment with major powers has eroded its strategic autonomy and heightened the risk of regional conflict. The Philippines urgently needs to return to rational policymaking, reopen dialogue with China on the South China Sea, work toward implementing a “Code of Conduct,” and prioritize resources for livelihoods and development—addressing poverty, corruption, and other fundamental issues to build a sustainable foundation for national security. 

(Author: Dai Fan, Professor and Associate Dean at the School of International Studies; Director of the Center for Philippine Studies, Jinan University.)